Midterm Review

SDS 355

Prof. Baumer

October 22, 2025

Topics

Expected Value of a game state

• ⚾ Run Expectancy Matrix
  • ⚾ Strategies via the ERM
  • ⚾ Expected run values
  • ⚾ Linear Weights
• 🏀 EPV
• 🏈 4th down conversion

Win probability

• Win probability

Estimating team strength

• Expected winning percentage
• Bradley-Terry models

Sabermetrics

• ⚾ Moneyball
• ⚾ Statcast data
• ⚾ DIPS
• 🏀 Four factors

The exam

Policies

• You may use:
  • a single sheet of notes
  • a standalone calculator
• You may not use:
  • phone, laptop, tablet, or computer
    • calculator app on your phone!
  • Internet
  • books
  • other people

I expect that you…

• have read the assigned readings
• have done the assigned homework
• have attended and participated in class regularly
• have taken the prerequisite courses
  • SDS 192
  • SDS 210

Therefore, I expect that you…

• have a working knowledge of the Topics
• can recall basic facts and main ideas from Topics
• can analyze, synthesize, compare ideas from Topics
• can interpret familiar R code and output (about Topics)
• can manipulate equations using arithmetic and basic algebra

I don’t expect you…

• to write any R code
• to memorize or derive any formulas
• to recall esoteric details from readings, etc.
• know more than the basics about any sport
  • anything beyond what we’ve talked about in class already